?????頁巖氣的第二大吸引力，也可能是更大的吸引力在于其經(jīng)濟利益。根據(jù)安永會計師事務所（Ernst & Young）報告，2011年石油和天然氣交易額高達3,170億美元，其中660億美元與頁巖氣相關(guān)。報告認為，這種趨勢還將繼續(xù)，而代價則是犧牲對傳統(tǒng)可再生能源的投資。頁巖氣的迅猛發(fā)展已經(jīng)造就了六七位新的億萬富豪。如今，人們都把頁巖氣行業(yè)比作蓬勃發(fā)展時期的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)業(yè)。但正如互聯(lián)網(wǎng)業(yè)泡沫后來的破裂，頁巖氣這個理想黃金國如今也面臨著風險。由于供過于求，價格下跌，頁巖氣生產(chǎn)商也面臨著相當嚴峻的挑戰(zhàn)。

????奧巴馬總統(tǒng)提出，美國還有近一百年的天然氣儲備量，但美國政府下屬的能源信息管理局（Energy Information Administration）卻對這個觀點提出了質(zhì)疑。厄運已經(jīng)降臨到了清潔科技產(chǎn)業(yè)。決策層需要就是否用頁巖氣替代可再生能源做出決定，或者效仿中國，培育兩種能源共存的機制。要知道，中國頁巖存儲量可比美國龐大得多。

????Sunil Sharan是西埃拉能源咨詢公司（Sierra Consulting）的創(chuàng)始人。他曾供職于通用電氣公司（General Electric），并在2008年到2009年期間擔任通用電氣智能電網(wǎng)項目（Smart Grid Initiative）負責人。他在能源行業(yè)擁有11年多的工作經(jīng)驗。他的郵箱

????譯者：李玫曉/汪皓

?????Shale's second, and perhaps greater attraction, is money. Of the $317 billion in oil and gas deals struck in 2011, $66 billion were shale-related, according to accounting firm Ernst & Young. The trend, they believe, will continue, and at the expense of investment in traditional renewables. Already, the shale surge has minted a half-dozen new billionaires, and is being likened to the Internet boom. But just as the latter went bust, so is the shale El Dorado at risk. Shale prices have tumbled from about $8 for a unit of gas in 2008 to roughly $2.50 now. With supply outstripping demand, low prices are crippling producers.

????President Obama claims that America has a nearly 100-year supply of natural gas, but his own Energy Information Administration contests his contention. A blight has already descended on the clean tech industry. Policymakers have to decide whether shale is enticing enough to give renewables a rebuff, or whether the two can coexist, just like what China, which has much greater shale deposits than us, is fostering.

????Sunil Sharan is the founder of Sierra Consulting, an energy consulting firm. He was formerly with General Electric (GE), where he served as the director of GE's Smart Grid Initiative from 2008 to 2009. He has worked in the energy industry for over 11 years, and can be reached at Email?.