????“我過去曾經(jīng)想如果有來生，我希望能當(dāng)上美國(guó)總統(tǒng)、羅馬教皇或一名擊中率四成的棒球手。但現(xiàn)在我想成為債券市場(chǎng)，因?yàn)樗梢試樆Ｗ∪魏稳??！?——美國(guó)民主黨政策顧問詹姆斯?卡維爾

????來自歐洲的消息每況愈下。債務(wù)水平如此高漲，而對(duì)政府的信心卻如此低迷，債券市場(chǎng)咔咔作響，歐洲政府驚慌失色。人們對(duì)于此類債券以及國(guó)家縮減開支并取得經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的信心跌至谷底，主權(quán)債券利率飆升（見下圖）。

????這一切除了讓初創(chuàng)企業(yè)家在瀏覽《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》（The Wall Street Journal）時(shí)感到不那么舒服之外，還有什么價(jià)值？在此，我提三點(diǎn)建議：

????1. 做好準(zhǔn)備，應(yīng)對(duì)一切可能。我父親過去一直告訴我：“不要臆斷任何事情?！边^去幾個(gè)月，宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)的各種可能性都大增。我們進(jìn)入了一個(gè)充滿不確定性的時(shí)期，每個(gè)人都需要為空前開放的局面做好準(zhǔn)備。經(jīng)濟(jì)能否挺過難關(guān)？我們能否避免經(jīng)濟(jì)二次探底？我們是進(jìn)入了一場(chǎng)大范圍的、五年期終局較量（去杠桿化，無增長(zhǎng)）？如果高科技初創(chuàng)企業(yè)的主戰(zhàn)場(chǎng)在云計(jì)算、電子商務(wù)、在線廣告、移動(dòng)服務(wù)等發(fā)展前景穩(wěn)定的領(lǐng)域，它們能否安然無恙?

????沒有人會(huì)知道，因此請(qǐng)為2012年制定一系列計(jì)劃吧！這樣，就可以根據(jù)客觀的外部觸發(fā)條件，實(shí)施不同的計(jì)劃【《長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)眼光的藝術(shù)》（The Art of the Long View）一書可以提供指導(dǎo)】。隨時(shí)轉(zhuǎn)備好這些方案，時(shí)機(jī)一到，馬上付諸實(shí)施。

????2. 不能一直欠債不還。初創(chuàng)企業(yè)通常沒有財(cái)務(wù)債（而且顯然也不會(huì)達(dá)到某些主權(quán)國(guó)家債務(wù)那樣的水平），但會(huì)有很多其他類型的債務(wù)，這些我們?cè)谌粘Ｉ钪幸材芸吹?。例如?/p>

????"I used to think if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the President or the Pope or a .400 baseball hitter. But now I want to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everyone." --James Carville

????The news out of Europe just goes from bad to worse. With debt levels so high and confidence in government so low, the bond market has come a knocking and is intimidating the heck out of European governments. Interest rates on sovereign debt soar (see chart below) when the trust in the sanctity of that debt, and the country's ability to tighten their belt while growing out of it, plummet.

????What does all of this mean for entrepreneurs, other than a queasy feeling in your stomach when you read glance at The Wall Street Journal? I have three pieces of advice:

????1. Plan for Anything. My father used to always tell me, "don't assume anything." The range of possible macroeconomic scenarios has exploded in the last few months. We are entering a time of such uncertainty that one needs to be prepared for a far broader range of scenarios than ever before. Will the economy muddle through? Will we avoid a double dip? Are we entering a massive, 5-year EndGame of de-leveraging and no growth? Will high tech entrepreneurs be unaffected when they play in such massive secular growth areas, such as cloud, e-commerce, online advertising, mobile and others?

????No one knows, so develop a range of plans for 2012 with objective external triggers that would steer you towards one plan or the other – see The Art of the Long View for a guide on how to do this – and have them on the shelf ready to execute when the time is right.

????2. You Can't Fund a Big Debt Forever. Startups don't typically take on financial debt (and certainly not at the level of a sovereign government), but there are many other kinds of debt in a startup in particular and in life in general that one can find oneself in the midst of. For example: