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存亡關(guān)頭,零售巨頭西爾斯孤注一擲

存亡關(guān)頭,零售巨頭西爾斯孤注一擲

Kit R. Roane 2011-10-20
艾迪?蘭伯特打造的這家零售集團(tuán)在舉步維艱之際已找到權(quán)宜之計(jì),但這可能只是飲鴆止渴,有一個(gè)重大問題仍未得到解答:西爾斯的終局將如何?

????斯托維爾在研究過蘭伯特管理之下的西爾斯架構(gòu)后指出,“我認(rèn)為蘭伯特在試圖最有效地利用其資產(chǎn),這是公司經(jīng)營(yíng)者應(yīng)盡的本分?!?斯托維爾還說,蘭伯特這位對(duì)沖基金權(quán)威創(chuàng)造的股東價(jià)值超過了大多數(shù)人愿意承認(rèn)的水平。“如果能在營(yíng)收下滑之際維持現(xiàn)金流,這是一個(gè)相當(dāng)好的結(jié)果。我認(rèn)為如果沒有蘭伯特,就不會(huì)有他創(chuàng)造的大量股東價(jià)值?!?/p>

????2005年,蘭伯特重組凱馬特零售超市(Kmart)時(shí)的原始投資者們收獲頗豐,當(dāng)然,前提是他們后來沒有像蘭伯特那樣持續(xù)買入公司的股票。那一年,蘭伯特將凱馬特與西爾斯, Roebuck and Co.公司合并,隨后創(chuàng)造性地推出了一系列商業(yè)計(jì)劃,并對(duì)公司管理層進(jìn)行了重組。

????為改善財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù),西爾斯多方嘗試,包括關(guān)閉經(jīng)營(yíng)不善的門店、為網(wǎng)站注入活力,并將分布在眾多門店的133,000平方英尺零星店面租給其他零售商,諸如青少年品牌Forever 21、艾德溫沃茲高爾夫商店(Edwin Watts Golf Shops)和制服零售商Work 'N Gear以及雜貨店和連鎖健身俱樂部等等。

????然而,西爾斯去年的營(yíng)收仍然降至433億美元,低于2008年的507億美元。8月份,該公司公布凱馬特第二季度同店銷售額持平,而西爾斯美國(guó)門店下降1.2%。歸屬于股東的當(dāng)季凈虧損為攤薄后每股1.37美元,高于2010年的0.35美元。2010年?duì)I運(yùn)現(xiàn)金流剛剛為正值,2011年截至7月30日的26周為-4.67億美元。市場(chǎng)普遍預(yù)計(jì)西爾斯控股11月中旬將公布每股虧損2.29美元。

????6月份,惠譽(yù)(Fitch)將西爾斯控股債務(wù)評(píng)級(jí)從“B+”調(diào)低至 “B”,理由是其盈利持續(xù)惡化,特別是“2011年第一季度陡然下滑”?;葑u(yù)列出的問題是西爾斯和凱馬特美國(guó)門店的增收增幅繼續(xù)落后于其他零售商,營(yíng)業(yè)利潤(rùn)率也滯后。這家評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)稱,最令人擔(dān)憂的是“盈利能力降幅之大以及看不到扭轉(zhuǎn)頹勢(shì)的前景?!?/p>

????賓夕法尼亞大學(xué)(University of Pennsylvania)沃頓商學(xué)院(Wharton School)的營(yíng)銷學(xué)教授斯蒂夫?霍克指出,西爾斯近日的銷售許可戰(zhàn)略將增加一些低利潤(rùn)率銷售額,有助于改善收入狀況。同時(shí),“與其他零售商的合作”可能還會(huì)對(duì)門店認(rèn)可度有些幫助,但他認(rèn)為許可協(xié)議最終給西爾斯帶來的益處相當(dāng)有限。

????大衛(wèi)德維茨認(rèn)為,不要揣測(cè)西爾斯最近的舉措背后有什么宏大的計(jì)劃。“西爾斯傳達(dá)的信息是:,過去我們一塌糊涂,但現(xiàn)在我們已經(jīng)有了一位新總裁。我們需要籌集資金,贏得時(shí)間來探索電子商務(wù)市場(chǎng)。為了讓人們不再質(zhì)疑我們是否還有存在的價(jià)值,我們只能這么做,”他認(rèn)為?!耙磺兄皇菫榱松妗!?/p>

????"I do think Lampert is trying to utilize his assets in the most efficient way, which is what people who run companies are supposed to do," says Stowell, who has studied Sears structure under Lampert. He adds that the hedge fund guru has done better for shareholders than many will admit. "If you can maintain cash flow in the context of declining revenues, that is a pretty good outcome. I give him credit for generating a lot more shareholder value than would have been created in the absence of the Lampert ownership period."

????Original investors in Lampert's reorganized Kmart have done well enough, at least if they didn't keep buying stock (as Lampert has), through the merger with Sears, Roebuck and Co. in 2005 and the other various inspired initiatives and management shakeups that followed.

????In an attempt to boost its financials, Sears has been attempting to shed unproductive stores, enliven its internet presence and lease out bits of the 133,000 square feet that encompass its average location to other retailers, such as Forever 21, Edwin Watts Golf Shops and Work 'N Gear, as well as grocery and health club chains.

????But revenues were down to $43.3 billion last year, from $50.7 in 2008. In August, the company reported that Kmart's comparable store sales were flat in the second quarter, while Sears stores in the U.S. saw a decline of 1.2%. Net loss for shareholders for the quarter equaled $1.37 per diluted share, compared with a 35-cent per diluted share loss in 2010. Cash flow from operations was barely positive for 2010 and was negative $467 million for the 26 weeks ending July, 30, 2011. The consensus estimate is for Sears Holdings to show a loss of $2.29 per share when it reports in mid-November.

????In June, Fitch downgraded Sears Holdings debt to "B" from "B+," due to the continuing deterioration of earnings, particularly the "precipitous decline during the first quarter of 2011." The problem illuminated by Fitch is that domestic Sears and Kmart stores have continued to underperform other retailers on top line growth and operating margins have also lagged. The rating agency says its greatest concern is "the magnitude of decline in profitability and the lack of visibility to turn around operations."

????Professor Steve Hoch, who teaches marketing at University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, notes that Sears' latest licensing move will help bolster its income by pulling in some additional, albeit lower-margin sales. It will also possibly help a little with store recognition due to the "implicit endorsement by the other retailers," but he sees Sears' ultimate benefit from the licensing deals as being rather small.

????There's no sense in trying to divine a grand plan from the move, according to Davidowitz . "Sears is saying we got all this crap, we've got a new president and we need to buy some time to come up with something online, and this will be something we can do so people won't question if we should even be in business," he opines. "It's about survival."

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