国产一精品一AV一免费,亚洲成AV人片不卡无码,AV永久天堂一区二区三区,国产激情久久久久影院

立即打開(kāi)
Chanos vs. China (Part One)

Chanos vs. China (Part One)

Bill Powell 2010年11月23日

So many empty properties

????To understand Chanos's China skepticism -- he calls it "Dubai times 1,000" -- it's worth visiting the Rose and Ginko Valley housing development near Sheshan Mountain, a new suburb outside Shanghai. Block after block after block of villas have gone up. And they are empty.

????In the country's largest, most affluent cities -- Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, known as tier-one cities to the real estate cognoscenti -- it is not an unusual phenomenon. There is a lot of new, unoccupied housing in China. Just how much -- and just how much of a concern it should be -- is a central debate.

????Fixed-asset investment accounts for more than 60% of China's overall GDP. No other major economy even comes close. And of that fixed investment, slightly less than a quarter is attributable to new real estate investment.

????There are reliable data on the amount of new construction under way each year, and on how much is sold. In 2009, for instance, buyers in China purchased 44% more residential floor space than they did in 2008.

????But there are no official estimates yet for the vacancy rates for private housing, for how much of that new housing bought is actually occupied. (The government, signaling that it understands how much it matters, is carrying out a census now to try to get a grip on the question.)

????Consider the Sheshan project. A spokesman for the Chongqing-based development company would say only that almost all the units were sold in advance. That, in fact, has been standard-operating procedure in the market for new housing in China. Buyers plunk down money based on a plan, and the developer takes those commitments to the bank to get financing for construction. Very few projects are done on spec.

????But that still leaves the question that makes a lot of people nervous -- and Chanos bearish -- about China: Why are so many flats and villas that have been bought and paid for empty? And how could that augur anything but pain for the real estate market in China? And if it means pain for the real estate market, considering that new property sales accounted for 14% of GDP in 2009, doesn't that mean trouble, sooner or later, for the broader economy?

????That the real estate market in China is hugely speculative is not in dispute. An investor who lives near me in suburban Shanghai has bought -- count 'em -- 43 units over the past three years. He is still sitting on them, because, he believes, prices will continue going up.

????Chanos ticks off reasons for that kind of behavior. Individual Chinese investors are limited in where they can put their renminbi. They can stash it in a standard bank account and receive a negative rate of return, given an inflation rate running at about 3%. They can put the money in the stock market, but equities in China are much more volatile than those in developed markets. Capital controls limit investment opportunities for individuals abroad. So that leaves real estate.

????Chanos acknowledges that China's emerging middle class sees real estate as a store of value. To many, buying an apartment in Shanghai or Beijing is like buying a bar of gold. And many -- "too many," Chanos says -- have kept on buying as prices have gone up in the past five years.

????Chanos's team, like a lot of other people, is trying to get a grip on just how many empty units there are in China. One prominent bear in China, independent economist Andy Xie, has put the amount at the equivalent of 15% of GDP. Chanos doesn't endorse that specific figure but believes "it's a big problem, and it's getting worse, not better, as more units come onstream."

掃碼打開(kāi)財(cái)富Plus App
苍梧县| 南陵县| 双城市| 迭部县| 五指山市| 横峰县| 大名县| 全南县| 海晏县| 香河县| 油尖旺区| 开阳县| 德庆县| 桐梓县| 阿拉善左旗| 西乌| 永平县| 双流县| 中超| 婺源县| 略阳县| 盐源县| 怀仁县| 九江县| 枝江市| 滕州市| 贵南县| 元谋县| 革吉县| 什邡市| 正阳县| 安西县| 孟州市| 江安县| 株洲市| 涡阳县| 白朗县| 玛多县| 高台县| 牡丹江市| 迁安市|